We’re well past January or even December of last year when most people were making their predictions for the year. But predictions are always accurate when they are closer to the time, aren’t they? So here’s my list of accurate predictions for 2016. Time will tell whether I was right to wait to make them.
1) Staycations will increase
Staycation was the trend a few years back when the UK economy was weak, people were scared of losing their job and had not had a pay rise for a while. This year it’s back for a different reason: the heightened risk of air travel, especially across Europe. Airports are likely to react to the latest incident by starting security checks outside the building, causing even further inconvenience for passengers. Whether that one happens or not, many people will stick to a holiday within the UK, whether that’s a city break, caravanning, a trip to Scotland or a camping trip.
2) The Olympics and Euro 2016 will cause a lull in travel
Couple these big events with the current heightened risk of air travel and people will watch the games at home instead of booking their holiday over summer. Unless of course they are attending the events.
If you’re one of the few people not interested in either event, now will be the time to travel and avoid the crowds and peak prices.
3) The UK will leave the EU.
The EU is very weak at the moment: socially, politically and economically. Europe has lost control of migration, the political leaders are lacking in leadership and decisive actions about both this annd terrorism and many countries still have a weak economy. Greece in particular is showing no sign of recovery and will eventually have to default on its debt, have them written off or leave the EU. Oops, another prediction.
The Brits will see they have nothing much to gain by staying in the EU currently and will vote accordingly.
4) European travel will not get more expensive…
…following the Brexit, that is.
This is because the UK is a large prosperous country contributing a significant number of travellers to Europe, whether for business or holidays, especially to popular destinations in Spain. It’s not like the Portuguese are queuing up to go on holiday to Alicante…
Any increase in EU taxes, airport landing fees, custom duties, etc, will have a significant and detrimental impact on travel in these key destinations and would wreak havoc on the local economies, already fragile. The EU chiefs will do everything they can to welcome the Brits’ money, especially if there is already a decrease in the number of UK holidaymakers following my predictions #1 and #2.
Failing that, holidaymakers may seek to travel further to Croatia and so on, outside the EU. These countries will be sure to capitalise on this opportunity should EU travel become more expensive. So there’s always a cheap sunny destination awaiting the British should my prediction go wrong!
5) Half-term holidays will remain expensive
That’s an easy one. They have been more expensive for a while and this is not going to change anytime soon. it’s simple economics, demand and supply. Whether people believe or not that travel companies are putting up their price outrageously just to make more money, it is a fact that supply becomes more restricted during half-term periods. In reality, it’s likely to be both – travel companies increasing prices more than they need to. But it’s also possible that during times of low demand, they lower prices to attract more customers…
We’ll just have to live with that situation for now.
What’s your prediction for 2016?